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HR Guide to Scenario Planning

Adopt a proactive mindset to navigate uncertainty.

  • Few organizations follow structured and disciplined scenario planning.
  • Barriers prevent organizations from conducting structured scenario planning, such as the practice’s complexity and required investment, lack of expertise, focus on risks over opportunities, perceived lack of value, and workload and capacity issues.
  • Confusion remains around how scenario planning is integrated into the strategic planning process and how it relates to other strategic methodologies, including business continuity planning and contingency planning.

Executive Summary

Critical Insight

Scenario planning goes beyond risk mitigation and preparing for worst-case scenarios. Proactively identifying environmental trends, developing scenarios, and preparing next steps enables organizations to capitalize on potential opportunities while minimizing risks in an uncertain future.

Impact & Result

  • Improved ability to proactively identify internal and external trends, develop scenarios, capitalize on opportunities, and identify risks.
  • Enhanced resilience, equipping organizations to compete and avoid competitive disruption.
  • Greater organizational collaboration and agility by bringing together leaders and other key players to align strategic thinking and develop flexible action plans for future scenarios.

Research & Tools

1. Set the objective

Engage key players, identify the factors prompting a need for scenario planning, and determine the scope.

2. Scan the environment

Conduct an environmental scan and prioritize key elements for scenario planning.

3. Develop scenarios

Develop scenarios using the spectrum approach and identify leading indicators.

4. Evaluate initiatives and prepare action plans

Prepare action plans for each scenario, plan to continuously monitor and iterate, and embed scenario planning into daily operations.

HR Guide to Scenario Planning enlarged preview